Market Technician Calls That I don't agree

RICHARD RHODES: BULL MARKET IS OVER
“The bull market is over; the Dow Industrials broke below its major bull market trendline extending from the 1982 bear market lows through the 2002 bear market lows. Obviously, one cannot take this lightly, as last week’s negative price action was more of a bear market “exclamation point” intended to say that from this point forward - rallies are to be sold and sold hard. However, it would appear the initial decline is coming to an end quite soon; the 30-month moving average crosses at 12,038 and was successfully tested on Friday. Too, the previous highs all-time highs at 11,500 are just below current levels. The 9-month RSI is approaching levels that in the past have coincided with bull market correction bottoms and bear market bottoms. Thus, the risk-reward profile for the Dow is changing in the short-term from bearish to ‘flat’ and will ultimately turn to bullish. But, remembering that the trend is lower… rallies will be short-lived.”

CARL SWENLIN: BEAR MARKET RULES APPLY
“On January 8 the 50-EMA crossed down through the 200-EMA on the S&P 500 daily chart, generating a long-term sell signal and declaring that we are now in a bear market. This was confirmed this week when the weekly 17-EMA crossed down through the 43-EMA. Let me say that these signals are not 100% reliable, but there is a ton of additional supporting evidence, such as the decisive violation of the long-term rising trend line, and the violation of the double top neckline, seen on the chart below.”

“An important point is that this long-term sell signal is not so much an action signal as it is an information signal. What this means is that we need to begin interpreting charts and indicators in the context of a bear market template. For example:

- Oversold conditions should be viewed as extremely dangerous. Whereas in bull markets oversold lows usually present buying opportunities, in bear markets they can often resolve into more heavy selling.

- Overbought conditions in a bear market are most likely to signal that a trading top is at hand.

- While bear market rallies present great profit opportunities, long positions should be managed as short-term only.

The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise. For the longer-term, let’s look at the 4-Year Cycle chart below. As you can see, the last cycle low was in mid-2006, so the next projected low is in mid-2010. Assuming that the cycle low and bear market low will be the same, we have a long, bloody road ahead. The most obvious downside target is the support at the 2002 lows, about 750 on the S&P 500.”



Let's mark their words and see what happens