A pure financial crisis?

chincook,

Though I never posted at mitbbs, I have been reading there a lot and like your posts the most. Glad to see you here. As for your view, I was thinking the same and still think it could be the best scenario if everything turns out the way as we hoped: a pure financial crisis. That's why I was quite bullish in the beginning of the year and shouted bottom around 1250, and worst 1150. Boy was I wrong, I would be chopped to thousand pieces if I posted that in MITBBS.

Not till the July crash, I came to realize how severe the situation is, we are talking about a 12 trillion Real Estate bubble, compare with 5 trillion Nasdaq 2000 melt down, it’s 2.5 time worse, in addition to that, We are living in a globalized era, globalization makes life better in many ways, but when it fail it could be quite ugly. As for how bad it can be, it is up to anyone’s guess.



On the bright side, the world will be much better after the wash off, there will be many prosper years ahead of us, so let’s get prepared for this to end, and end it will, that I can assure you.





chinook wrote:
头次开贴，上周四晚上和朋友们说的几句话：

“I have been thinking about this sell off with the 1929 one, and I still believe this will be a much short event, it might only have a quick dent for the economy, just like a flu. The quick response, coordinated actions across the globe and the real needs from emerging market will prevent a deep recession from happening. ”

基本的想法就是so far，实际上还是金融危机，如果政府开动印钞机器，很多程度上代理financial inst的功能，或让金融机构再次运转起来，那么经济主体当不会受太大影响。

向各位老大请教下，这个看法哪里不对？