Monday, October 6, 2008

Time To Go Long, At Least For A Short Time?

The violent sell-off in stock markets Monday morning, along with the stream of bad economic news of last week, is bound to provoke substantial cuts in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Stock markets should thus be near a good rebound, especially given near-term oversold conditions.


If you went into those double-short ETFs last week, take the 10% to 25% gains so far and shift into the double-long ETFs. There is a list at Stock-Encyclopedia.com. I myself bought the Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bull Plus ETF (HXU) and the ProShares Ultra S&P500 ETF (SSO) – or should the symbol be SOS now?). It could be early and the double-long ETFs could come down fast, but they can come back fast too.

If and when the rally comes, it may be short-lived as attention shifts back to the worsening economic indicators parading through the headlines. So one could don their trader’s hat … or consider buying and holding since it’s hard to imagine stocks staying below this level over the next year to three years. Moreover, the Fed and politicians will likely have a number of other counterpunches lined up after the first rate cut.

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